FYI from BSF, 11.19.21
Decline
Data released last night indicates Massachusetts public school enrollment has stabilized, but that is not the case in Boston (covered here, here).
We have been observing and projecting Boston student enrollment decline for some time (example). There have been long term, clear signals of this in Boston, as well as many other cities around the country (Indianapolis is a curious exception).
Like many other economic and social phenomena, COVID-19 did not create student enrollment issues in Boston; it is just speeding it up. We will have a lot more analysis in the coming weeks, but here are the initial headlines.
Boston Public Schools enrollment has been in decline for years, but COVID-19 has accelerated this trend, with a second year of substantial drops.
One immediate concern that raises is BuildBPS. Actual enrollment varies from the BuildBPS plan (page 120) by nearly 12,000 students. The dark blue gap you see below is equivalent to nearly two Cambridges or a Lawrence.
The decline is diffuse. It is observed by race (be mindful, however, of the complexity/potential inaccuracy of reporting populations by race).
By neighborhood. Close readers will notice that we treat exam schools as a “neighborhood” given their size and citywide pull.
By grade. Enrollment is up in several entry grades (PK, K, and and 9), but still well below pre-pandemic levels.
There is no singular answer for what is driving this. It is not clear from the data that this is due to a migration toward charters, METCO, etc. We do know that birthrates have been down for more than a decade. Average Boston households are smaller. Housing costs are high. Immigration has slowed. There are no quick fixes for what appears to be a systemic trend.
But having this data this early is very valuable for city planning. More accurate enrollment information can result in better budgeting and more timely capital projects.
Failure to do so will directly impact children and educators. As we have explained in the past, enrollment declines create budget issues. It means less federal and state dollars for Boston schools. It means many Boston schools could face real budget crunches. Federal stimulus funding could temporarily bridge the gap, but there is very little insight to how that money is being spent.
On December 15th, BPS is slated to present its financial position and initial enrollment projections for next year.
Reopening Boston, MA and Beyond
Health and safety was a dominant theme in Wednesday’s Boston School Committee. There was substantial discussion and data referenced, but if you weren’t watching, you have access to almost none of this information. Except for the bus drivers’ contract and a MassCore update, the other topics were not on the public agenda and the presentation was not made public.
It is hard to miss the coverage of the Curley School. Families are concerned. Teachers are concerned. Gubernatorial candidates are concerned. People want the CDC to be concerned. The district’s response is being scrutinized, and four days of schools have become a pitched point of contention between Boston and the state.
But there has been very little discussion of what will avoid this from happening in the future: vaccinating 5-11 year olds. Currently, the city is advertising 14 clinics over the next two weeks.
9 of the clinics offer hours while kids are in school.
0 of the clinics are at a school (although we are hearing chatter of schools simply standing up their own pop-up clinics).
Without a clear central effort (like in Lynn), we also don’t know how many kids are vaccinated. The Boston Public Health Commission updated its reportingto show 5-14 or 15-24 year-olds, making it impossible to determine how many school children have been vaccinated. There also have been no goals set. At Wednesday’s School Committee meeting, it was stated that more was being planned and that shots would be available “some time in the new year...for anyone who wants them.”
This all matters particularly against the backdrop of increased school-based cases over the past two weeks. Masks in many school districts aren’t going away anytime soon.
In any case, as the extensive polling released by MassInc on Wednesdays shows, families want their kids in school buildings and are eager to see interrupted time made up. In-person instruction is particularly important for students with special needs and English language learners.
Other Massachusetts communities are also grappling with safety and racism.
There is still a lot more money coming to the state for schools. But with the federal infrastructure bill just signed and no deal at the state level yet for distributing the federal funds we already have, we don’t know when or for what.
Other Matters
Graphs like the one below display gender disparities in the education workforce in Massachusetts.
