FYI from BSF, 11.12.21

Big and Small

Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, over a series of decades, produced groundbreaking studies on how human beings process information and make decisions. It turns out that there are lots of ways we can make mistakes.

There is one trap we all fall easily into: the small sample fallacy. You see one experience, one small set of data, and you project that on to a much larger set of experiences or data.

The pounding ubiquity of media provides no shortage of experiences or data. Political polarization and a lingering pandemic provide the screens to project our assumptions on. These screens converge in one place right now: schools.

Example One: the Curley in Jamaica Plain.

(Rich Parr)

For the children, families, and educators involved it must be harrowing. It is jarring, even triggering, for the public to hear about a school being closed. But is it a sign of some sort of systemic failure, or resurgence of public health concerns?

Probably not. If the reported numbers are correct, the positive cases at the Curley represent 0.09% of BPS enrollment. This is the first school building in Boston to be closed this year. New York City, with over a million students, has only had to close school buildings twice. Although there are initial concerns and confusion about remote instruction or added days for the students at the Curley, those days represent only 0.1% of the instructional time for the district.

Big impact for a small number of kids and educators, but a small impact for the bigger pool of kids and educators.

Example Two: School Violence.

There have been very concerning incidents of violence in Massachusetts schools recently. Is this a signal of the difficulty for many kids reentering school buildings?

We don’t know. Unlike tracking the pandemic, we are in the dark about whether this is big or small. As a recent editorial pointed out, Boston and almost no other community are tracking and reporting on school safety in any meaningful way. Despite the concern and rhetoric about students’ social and emotional well-being, there has been scant data or reported interventions reported by Boston or other districts.

Example Three: School Politics.

Was the Virginia governor’s race decided on the topic of schools, specifically school closure?

Probably not. To make sense of a complex and inexplicable event - why ~2.6M Virginians decided to do something last Tuesday - it is easy to grab on to one take, one focus group, one quote to “explain” the results.

Despite individual or community experiences or opinions, Americans are generally OK with how schools have been handled in the pandemic.

This is very recent data, but other national polls (EdNext) and a series of polls in Massachusetts by MassInc support the same conclusion. We will have an additional data point when MassInc releases its most recent poll next week (register here if you like).

More data is usually good. The bigger the set, the more accurate our inferences tend to be. Anyone who has worked in a school can tell you there is no shortage of ways to collect more and more data.

What can the system learn from the need to close the Curley, as a case like this could arise again? What is the actual state of children’s social and emotional health in Boston right now, and what interventions may be needed? As, at some point, we move into the endemic stage, what do families expect of schools for learning and public health?

Data, big or small, is itself not meaningful. It needs to be applied.

Reopening Boston, MA and Beyond

A first, small step was taken this week, with now likely over a million 5-11 year olds already receiving their vaccinations.   Will this grow to a bigger number?  That is unclear, given vaccine hesitancy among parents and caregivers.

Many leaders are not being passive on this issue.  The First Lady visited a vaccination clinic this week, which also happened to be the site of first school-based polio inoculations.  There is no school in Chicago today and 200 vaccination sites are open.  Worcester Public Schools partnered with UMass Medical Center to provide vaccines at all of their schools over a period of eleven days.  Big Bird got involved.  

In Boston, there are two vans kids can go to on Tuesdays and Fridays; the majority of times are during school hours.  

With a slight uptick in cases statewide, eyes will be on the weekly school-based COVID report when it is released later today (delayed due to yesterday’s holiday).

There are lingering labor shortage issues.  Exactly eight years after Boston last elected a new mayor, bus drivers are again threatening to strike.  Seattle Public Schools preemptively closed schools for today; there were not enough substitutes to cover teachers taking vacation or out sick.

The federal infrastructure plan could address two major learning impediments - lead pipes in schools and lack of broadband access.

Other Matters

A new report from the Rennie Center spells out gender and racial disparities in school system leadership in Massachusetts.

Expect a response/action given some high-profile incidents in Massachusetts high school sports.

As we start school budgeting season, keep in mind that Boston and Massachusetts spend a lot more money on schools than most places.

There is no mystery on how to teach all kids how to read well - there are basically instructions schools and school systems can follow.