Some things we have read through recently...

A Slow Motion Disaster

We tend to associate “natural disaster” with earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and other environmental phenomena. Sudden, violent, disruptive.

Pandemics turn out to be a more subtle version.

There is a lot of data and research on the impact of natural disasters. And, although not as sudden, one outcome could be playing out here in Boston.

People leave cities.

Specifically:

High-income families - among other things, the flight of a city’s tax base may contribute to increased poverty
Low-income families - despite assumptions that low-income families may be less mobile, low-income student enrollment in New York City public schools declined the year after hurricane Sandy

There have been a lot of think pieces over the past few months concerning the future of cities and urbanism. They have focused mostly on the changing value proposition of population density and effects on the economy and labor market. There are even some indications that urban decline was on its way and COVID simply accelerated it.

But what about cities and schools?

By the end of the day, school districts across Massachusetts are required to submit their plan for school reopening next month. Based on public comments from the Mayor and the Superintendent, we don’t yet know what Boston plans to do. The only new significant information released this week is that, pending a state waiver, BPS is requesting to start school on September 21 (as presented at Wednesday’s City Council hearing and as reported in the Globe and MassLive; no official communication from BPS this, yet).

There is a flurry of activity. Press conferences. History lessons. An alternative plan released. Protests in cars. Cleaning and building repairs. New public health questions.

In any case, today will not bring certainty. Regardless of what is decided for Boston today, it can change (from City Council hearing):

People are wired to crave certainty; that can only increase in a time of general uncertainty.

The pandemic has challenged many conventions. For education, where you live used to be tied to where your children go to school, or whether a child needs to go to a school building at all. So, Boston families and educators, increasingly, are not waiting to plan their lives. They need time, schedules, and child care.

Without certainty, they are forming pods (here and here and here). They are enrolling in online schools. They are staying with cousins in other cities. They are retiring (slide 17). They are moving.

Natural disaster research implies many who leave may not come back. This is important to watch - not just in a few weeks, but in September 2021.

It is happening slowly. But without more certainty soon, it may be a very different city and school system by then.

Notes in the Margin

While many districts moved to start remote at least for the fall (Worcester, too, last night), the Governor first asserted in a Friday press conference more districts should be priortizing in-person instruction, backing that up with a map this week to show areas of the state that require additional state guidance and resources to contain the virus. Later reporting indicated that this was also intended to create a framework for many MA districts to maximize in-person instruction.

There is a willing audience for this, as seen in a survey of Massachusetts towns with low/no community transmission. There was also a rally outside of the State House promoting school reopening.

It does not help that “hybrid” itself is a very broad designation; districts are leveraging this approach differently, including prioritizing high-needs students due to equity concerns.

This need for clarity resulted in this open letter from a local superintendent requesting more state guidance and directives. Despite that, the additional state guidance released this week ran into some resistance.

Other Matters

MCAS is under fire, both at the legislature and letters to the editor. Despite assertions to the contrary, state accountability systems have a research basis for closing opportunity gaps.

Education has risen to the top of concerns for MA Latino residents (from MassInc).