FYI from BSF, 12.16.22
Boston Enrollment: Kindergarten and Beyond
In case you missed it, our annual enrollment analysis is available in three forms of varying length - a summary in Commonwealth, the full study on our website, and we recorded our Wednesday webinar, too (link here).
Against the tide of general decline, there is one increase that stands out: preK enrollment.
This more recent upward trend of 14% is reflective of a longer, gradual increase in the number of preK students enrolled in BPS, initiated during the Walsh administration. Already, there is a bounceback to pre-pandemic levels.
Why is preK so important? Its obvious benefits aside, more preK students should translate to more kindergarten students, which, you will see, drives system enrollment over time.
Except, in Boston, that hasn't happened. Kindergarten enrollment has declined precipitously (~20%), even while preK enrollment increased.
Why is this? Two observations.
First, the 2,923 students listed above are not all preK students. Both DESE and BPS report preK and K0 (aka, "nursery," aka "3 year olds") as a singular number. The true preK number, that feeds into kindergarten, is significantly lower; based on what has been self-reported to us by families using Boston School Finder, there are around or above 1,000 K0 seats.
Second, preK enrollment reported to the state does not include community providers, private organizations or early education centers that offer preK through the city's UPK system. There has been significant work to link community providers to BPS kindergarten classrooms, but our past research for Boston School Finder indicates that ~60% of families consider all sectors - BPS, charters, parochial, METCO - when selecting kindergarten.
The graph below looks messy, but if you squint your eyes you will see enrollment patterns in BPS are surprisingly similar year-to-year. A spike at entry, a decline through elementary (families moving, charter demand), a spike at 7th grade (exam schools), a spike at 9th (exam schools and newcomers).
There is one critical, dominant pattern: how you start is how you finish. Look at the far left and the far right of each colored line. The smaller the kindergarten class, the smaller the cohorts, the smaller the graduating class, etc. More recent cohorts, not reflected above, are starting with even fewer kindergartners.
Much of the data from our enrollment analysis is backwards looking. What happened? What caused it? How does the district look differently from a decade ago? But it also signals a likely future.
There are lots of external inputs to ponder - birth rates, household size, housing, migration and immigration, the number of young children in the city (down 10% in the past two years alone). We could do even more complex analysis.
But less kids in kindergarten means less kids in the system over time.
Continued enrollment decline is more likely than not.
What's the plan?
Notes in the Margin
Boston School Committee met Wednesday. Full materials here. In addition to scheduled business, there was discussion of the return of COVID protocols, which we are seeing at the federal level, too. Chairperson Robinson and Member Tran will be renewed in January. The meeting featured a hefty enrollment and financial analysis. There is one slide that represents a significant strategic commitment.
By moving soft landings (additional funding for under enrolled schools) into ESSER dollars, a clock starts ticking. What happens when this money runs out in two years? This shift also means that any of the 1,429 positions addedor initiatives initially funded by ESSER will need to be funded by increased dollars from the city budget, or stop.
Teacher absences may be up this year. Questions around special educationand buses continue. What does the recruitment of Black male teachers look like? New STEM/pathway opportunities are coming to Boston.
Massachusetts voters support an expanded role and increased state funding for early child care.
Sports talk happening in the MA’s West Wing. Soon-to-be Governor Healey highlights the need to reform the toxic culture of many high school sports. Soon-to-be-former Governor Baker will lead the NCAA.
In anticipation of millionaire’s tax revenue, the first policy proposal from a state agency: double financial aid for state universities.
Harvard's new president, Dr. Claudine Gay, is its first Black female leader.
Other Matters
With colder weather and precipitation finally upon us, our annual public service announcement that if you aren’t following @SnowDayBoston, you are doing it wrong.
