FYI from BSF, 12.15.23
Last evening, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education posted enrollment numbers for this school-year.
For the ninth consecutive year, Boston’s student population has decreased, down 0.5% (259 students) from last year.
But for a significant influx of migrant students in the past two years (slide 33), the decline would have been even more significant. Nevertheless, the cumulative decline since 2015 is quite large: enrollment is down by nearly 10,000 students, or about 17% of the district.
Two drivers stand out. First, like many school districts across the country, the pandemic accelerated existing trends. More than half the decline has come after 2020.
Second is an overall decline in Black students. Nuances of racial categorizations noted, this highlights a seismic shift for a district for which Black students were the plurality only fifteen years ago.
This underscores a broader point: Boston’s study body is not just smaller, it’s different. In addition to shifts in racial composition, Boston’s students are increasingly more likely to have higher needs.
There is no evidence that indicates these trends are temporary. In fact, data presented at Wednesday’s School Committee implies this is likely to continue. Kindergarten-aged children - the strongest predictor of a district’s enrollment - will continue to decrease for at least the next two years.
Housing prices, birth rates, educational attainment, and other broad economic and social forces show no signs of relenting in Boston and other cities.
What are the consequences?
In the near term, there are implications for budgets. The fiscal cliff is coming with the end of federal stimulus funding; fewer students means less federal and student aid. More acutely, federal dollars have been used to plug budget holes at under enrolled schools (“soft landings”). What happens when that money goes away? A presentation at Wednesday’s School Committee sought to answer that question.
In the longer term, enrollment is a critical component of facility planning, the Green New Deal for Boston Public Schools. The city’s last enrollment projection, under BuildBPS, was produced in 2017. It’s now off by nearly 15,000 students.
Family demand aside, the number of children enrolled in a school building is beyond the control of teachers and principals.
But understanding, projecting, and planning for that number is critical for teachers, principals, and, ultimately, children to get the resources they need to be successful in those buildings.
notes in the margin
In addition to the finance and enrollment updates, School Committee also featured an update on exam school admissions policy, hoping to limit the unintended consequences created by assigning “bonus points” for admission to some students and not others. The district continues to grapple with the evergreen problem that any change in any formula creates “winners” and “losers,” and the latter are always more than ready to state their case. Other Committee materials are here.
50/50 week on school facilities. Student usage is unclear for the potentially renovated White Stadium, and, after a few years of unsuccessful attempts, a new Boston school building project received a critical approval from the Massachusetts School Building Authority. A new building for the merged Charles Taylor and PA Shaw seems to be very much a reality now.
A new report lays out the learning recovery needed in Massachusetts. The report’s release generated some news, as Commissioner Riley announced support for mandating and funding evidence-based reading instruction.
Higher pay and access to training are proposed to open up educator pipelines in Massachusetts.
Enrollment is up again slightly for Massachusetts public schools. Massachusetts community college and public university enrollment is also up, for the first time since 2013.
With math achievement more stubborn to rebound, access to advanced classes may be a factor.
Education’s big stories in 2023, in charts.
Or, you can make your own. A new AI-supported website (zelma) allows a user to ChatGPT their way through state assessment data.
Other Matters
Shopping season is in full swing...for schools. Pre-registration is open for BPS. The charter school common application is live. And so is the online application for METCO.
Boston School Finder puts it all in one place for families.