FYI from BSF, 12.4.20

 
 
 

Some things we have read through recently...

Feature, Not Bug

As the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education met two days before Thanksgiving, Massachusetts released student enrollment data.  This is the earliest any of us can remember it being released (it has been made public as late as February in past years).

The state’s deck is straight to the point - traditional school district enrollment is down.  Other public school and private options seem to be up.

 
 

We have been observing and projecting Boston student enrollment decline for some time (example).  As shown in last year’s Kids Today report by Boston Indicators, there have been clear signals of this shift in the city’s demography.

Like many other economic and social phenomena, COVID-19 did not create student enrollment issues in Boston; it is just speeding it up.

You can read our whole analysis, skim the Cliffs Notes version on Twitter, or just read below.  

  1. Boston Public Schools enrollment has been in decline for years, but COVID-19 has accelerated this trend, with a substantial drop from last year (~2,300, nearly 5%).

 
 

2. The largest enrollment declines were among Black students (-6.9%) & Latino students (-4.7%).

 
 

3. There was a massive shift in special populations. Children leaving or not enrolling in BPS were more likely to not be Economically Disadvantaged (ED), be English Language Learners (ELL), or not require Special Education services (SWD).

 
 

4. BPS enrollment decreased in every Boston neighborhood except Back Bay.

 
 

5. Enrollment is down in most grades, particularly in traditional entry grades (PK, K, and 9).

 
 

6. BuildBPS projections (page 120) are now off by ~10,000 students.

 
 

There was a BuildBPS update at Boston School Committee on Wednesday night, but no analysis of the state-released enrollment data.  There has been no analysis or presentation of enrollment data (or any other data on children and their wellness) since October 8th.  This might be a topic at the School Committee retreat (agenda TBD) that was added for December 12th.  

There are many plausible theories and takes on enrollment declines.  Instead, let’s consider what this means for the future.

In the immediate, BPS is starting to budget for next year.  BPS uses weighted student funding; school budgets are driven by the number of students and those students’ needs.  With such a quick decline in students and without an infusion of state or federal cash, the choice is binary and unfortunate:

In the intermediate, this makes long-term planning even more challenging for the district.  The declines are diffuse, but the big drops in PK, K, 5, and 9 may prove to be most consequential.  There is some noise, but those grades tend to be very predictive of future enrollment.  It is highly likely that this is not a one-year problem.

Of course, this also could just be a blip.  Families may have skipped PK for myriad reasons, but next fall could be ready to enroll for compulsory kindergarten, for example.  

This is a highly complex problem which requires transparency, analysis, and planning. 

The costs of a miss are real.  

Reopening Boston, MA, and Beyond

Despite historically high COVID-19 rates this week in Massachusetts and Boston, there has been a shift in the dynamics around in-person instruction in schools, adding yet another wrinkle for district leaders around the state.

Although the Mayor publicly ruled out reopened buildings in the short-term, the Boston Teachers Union first informed members to prepare for the contingency of returning to buildings, and then last night shared that BPS has identified 28 schools to reopen to serve high-need, high priority students.  This has not been announced or confirmed by BPS.

What’s driving this?  Evolving science?  More testing?  Acknowledgement of the detrimental effects of remote learning?  Pressure from parents in School Committee public comments or rallies?

Whatever it is, we are seeing it in other places, too, with Rhode Island making a play to be the Europe of New England, New York City reopening buildings Monday, and Randi Weingarten penning a blueprint to reopen schools.

The elusiveness of measuring learning loss is compounded by the debate around administering assessments.  The federal government has already declared the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) will be skipped this year.  Massachusetts has stated a public commitment to having assessments this year, even if it means a modified or take-home MCAS.

One new argument for keeping snow days - they can’t be hacked.

Other Matters

Tune in to an EdVestors webinar on at 4 PM on Tuesday to learn more about one of our partner schools and 2019 School on the Move winner, the Harvard-Kent.

 
 

Later that afternoon, the Massachusetts Education Equity Partnership (MEEP) holds another #HearOurTruth Family Forum, in partnership with NBC Boston. 6:30 PM on Facebook Live.

 
 

On Wednesday night at 7 PM, Boston Families Building Boston Schools will host another Town Hall in its fall series.

Will Austin