FYI from BSF, 1.7.22

New Year, New Stage

Skyrocketing cases of COVID-19 fueled by the Omicron variant rang in the new year with another wave of disorder and anxiety for educators, families, and children.

[This McSweeney satire may hit a little too close to home for many.]

Calls to close schools again. Calls for hearings. Questions about tests and testing, masks and mask policies. Bringing back metrics for school closures. A handful of Massachusetts communities delayed reopenings or adjusted schedules, and major cities’ closures grabbed headlines.

But something remarkable happened in Boston: school buildings opened, until this morning's snow closed them.

That was also largely true across Massachusetts. Despite the attention to closures and disruptions, a rough count points to 90-95% of schools being open.

15 months ago, with BPS school buildings set to re-open for hybrid instruction, all in-person services - including for high-needs students - were suspended and did not resume until 6 months later. The positivity rate at that time was 5.7%. Compare that to now.

The positivity rate in Boston is likely even higher, given data hasn’t been updated since December 27th.

That same week in October, the number of reported school-based COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts was 274. Compare that to now, remembering this figure reflects two weeks and no more approved remote learning.

It was impossible to fathom in October, 2020 that school buildings would be open with this sort of data.

But they are.

That is not to say any of this was easy. City Hall and BPS central office jumped in, Dr. Cassellius taught, and principals and teachers went above and beyond for logistics and to cover schools and classrooms. Buses may still be a stumbling block.

Nor was it ideal. Staff absences were high, and Boston student attendance was reported to be around 70%. The school days this week were likely not normal (or even good) ones.

And, yet, there are clear pledges from Mayor Wu to keep buildings open, as long as there is no more snow and/or staffing crunches.

What changed in the last 15 months?

1. Science

The data on vaccine efficacy is unimpeachable. The vaccination rate for Boston educators has been reported as north of 90%, and the impending vaccine mandate for city workers will push that rate closer to 100%.

Yet, vaccination continues to be an underutilized tool. As of yesterday, Boston’s school children vaccination lags behind state averages.

Risks for children are better understood.  Mitigation measures, if not always executed well, are well-documented and have been shown to work.  
 

2. Remote Learning (and Its Discontents)

Although there is a small number of students and families for whom remote learning was successful, it is now very clear that it limited most children’s academic and emotional development.  It is not even clear if it was effective in preventing COVID-19 spread.  Most families don’t want it (but note variations by race).

Ask an educator, caregiver, or child in Boston right now: would they prefer a real snow day today or spending the day on Zoom?  Would most children learn more and have more fun with their peers and teachers in school (even in June), or on a Chromebook today?
 

3. Politics

One thing certainly hasn’t changed since October, 2020: school building closure is as much a political decision as it is a public health one.  Don’t forget, the speed and duration of initial school closures across the country were not correlated with positivity rates, hospitalizations, resources, or demographics.

The best predictor was how many of your neighbors voted for Trump or Clinton in 2016.

The political picture in Boston now versus October, 2020 is very different.  We have a new president, whom 82% of Bostonians voted for.  We have a new mayor, whom 64% of Bostonians voted for.  We have the same governor, whom 67% of Massachusetts voters elected, maintaining a near 40 point net favorability rating.

Aside from being popular with local voters, these three leaders have one clear thing in common: the public position and leadership to insist school buildings remain open.  Both Governor Baker and Mayor Wu opened days this week at open school buildings, showing, not just saying, their position.

If nothing else, the pandemic has humbled anyone willing to make predictions. But the past data is clear: after a rise in the pandemic, comes a fall.

It is unclear how long this surge will be. But if the majority of schools and systems manage to stay open through the majority of this spike, what does that mean for schools in the long run?

If closure or remote schooling are becoming the exception, what does a new "normal" look like?

It's a new year, and a new stage is ahead.

Reopening Boston, MA and Beyond

PK-12 is not alone in its disruptions. “Test and stay” is coming to early child care. This week’s Politico education newsletter goes deep on higher education’s struggles to reopen campuses.

Attempts to rethink or eliminate MCAS may hit a dead end, as the Biden Administration shows no signs of eliminating requirements.

Here is the most comprehensive data we have seen so far on how the hundreds of billions of dollars of federal aid for schools are being spent. Top item: staffing and staffing stipends/bonuses.

Other Matters

A bill is moving for universal, free meals in Massachusetts schools.

January 6, 2021 is now a school history lesson and, as always, there is a Massachusetts connection.

Know someone looking for a new school in Boston next year? Sign them up for Boston School Finder tools and updates.