FYI from BSF, 1.24.20
Some things we have read through recently…
Question - We believe the children are:
A. Our Future
B. Not Our Future
By coincidence, we all received two very big data updates in the past week. Boston Indicators at TBF released Kids Today and the state officially posted Boston’s 2019-2020 student data.
There is a lot in the TBF report, summarized by the Globe, WBUR, Boston.com, Sampan, and the Dorchester Reporter. Race, income, housing, school quality and school choice, etc. over time have converged to a clear result: we have a lot less kids in our city than we used to, and the student population (mostly students of color, and low-income students) does not match the adult population and is highly segregated.
We spend all of our time here thinking about good schools in Boston and how to get more kids into them. So, we take a particular interest in these enrollment updates.
Our question is what does all this data mean for kids now and moving forward.
We will start with BPS. Given demand for charters, METCO, and private/parochial options (page 18), the long-term decline of the child-aged population affects BPS enrollment,* and those effects have recently accelerated.
Since the start of the new student assignment system (and when Mayor Walsh took office), BPS enrollment has and continues to decline.
BPS had its lowest kindergarten and 1st grade enrollment ever recorded on DESE, in addition to its second lowest 9th grade enrollment, in 2020. With these smaller cohorts moving through the system and changes in demographics (housing, birth rates, household size, and immigration) it is hard to not conclude BPS will continue to see enrollment declines in the future.
The racial composition of the district has changed, and will likely continue to. For example, though the percentage of Latinx enrollment increased, the actual number of Latinx students decreased by over 500 students since 2013. The shift in Black enrollment is even more stark: almost 4,000 less Black students are enrolled in BPS from just seven years ago. The decline of Black students accounted for over 80% of the entire BPS enrollment decrease.
For schools, both funding and resource allocations are based on enrollment.
Less kids, assuming similar demographics, means less money for a school through the BPS funding formula. For the city, it means less state aid. It also means less federal aid.
Less kids means less efficient enrollment in classrooms and schools. In 2004, BPS had almost 10,000 more students than in 2020; yet, BPS had 300 more teachers this fall (compare here and here). That mismatch comes with a perceived benefit (smaller classes) and a real cost.
Less kids means emptier buildings. The BuildBPS projections from a few years ago are off by thousands of students (see page 116).
Assessing, projecting, and managing student enrollment is complicated. Boston is not alone in the problems we are experiencing as a city.
The question will be whether or not we do something about it.
Notes in the Margin
Police body cams are now in Boston schools.
From the meta desk, news on Boston education news.
A look back at Massachusetts’ 10-year old anti-bullying law.
Massachusetts continues to be super educated.
Governor Baker committed to financial support of the Student Opportunity Act and early child care in his annual budget proposal. Expect the state senate to push on the former.
The Rennie Center put out its annual Conditons of the Commonwealth report.
Oral arguments were heard this week at the Supreme Court on a case that could allow for more public funding in religious schools.
School Matters
Many of our partner schools, such as Mission Grammar below, had learning activities and/or service opportunities in observance of MLK Day.
*These numbers are tracked internally by BPS and can shift during the year with new arrivals, kids moving, etc. These numbers also don’t include Horace Mann or “in-district charters” (good primer here).