FYI from BSF, 08.05.22

Summer Reading

Released research and updates in state and federal data led to a news blitz of declining public school student enrollment. In Massachusetts. In urban areas across the country. Across multiple states. Seattle. LA.

It is easy for the public, the media, and policymakers to settle on the simplest explanation that the pandemic caused this. The impact is large and undeniable. One estimate places American public school decline at 1.3M since 2020 alone. Boston lost an estimated 3% of its population, and we have documented how that decline has impacted schools.

But a closer look at population trends tells a more complete story: the 0-5 child population had begun decreasing in major cities in the years before the pandemic.

File this under further evidence that enrollment decline in Boston is feature, not bug. Pre-pandemic market forces - housing costs, reduced immigration, smaller household sizes, etc. - had already begun to decelerate the child population in the city (longer version here). This is not unique to Boston, and borders on archetypal for for larger American cities.

Any major city mayor or superintendent relying on children and families “coming back” to strengthen budgets and programs have a hard truth to confront: many of those children and families were never here to begin with. This understanding must be central to Boston’s master facilities planning (which we talked about with NBC 10 here).

Boston summer programs are in full swing, with enrollment 20% up from last summer.

It will be a lot harder to get Boston students to school next month. The closure of the Orange Line from August 19 to September 19 means tens of thousands students will need to change how they get to school. Most Boston students in grades 7-12 are not provided with seats on yellow school buses, relying on the MBTA to get to and from school; many Boston high schools are close to Orange Line stops, or rely on bus transfers from hubs like Forest Hills and Jackson Square. Elementary and middle schools will feel the strain, too. The addition of 200 shuttle buses to cover the Orange Line closure, on top of the already 700+ BPS school buses on the road, guarantees additional traffic, tardies, and lost learning time.

Another research data point in support of diverse schools: lower income children with higher income friends have a better chance at exiting poverty. Great in theory, hard in practice in Massachusetts, with its 351 independent school districts, lines drawn by property tax.

Late last week, Governor Baker named two new members for the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, up for vote at the Board’s next meeting later this month. What does the passed state budget mean for education funding? The Rennie Center has a good summary here.

Around the country, most schools will enter the fall of 2022 very differently from 2020 and 2021: in-person and mask optional. Washington, DC remains an outlier with its vaccine requirement for students. With three states already declaring a state of emergency, the White House named a monkeypox coordinator and declared its own public emergency this week. Still no indication if this will be significant or a short-term nuisance for schools (see: “swine flu” in 2009).

If seeing the word “September” brings you or a caregiver you know back-to-school angst, go to Ed Navigator. The non-profit has now made many of its tools and approaches widely available.