FYI from BSF, 03.10.23
With all the discussion around student enrollment decline, should we also be worried about having less teachers?
A multi-state data analysis showed teachers leaving at higher rates than previous to the pandemic.
Source: Boston Public School Budget Development Pages, All Funds (here, and for following analyses and graphs)
Massachusetts 2023 data is not yet publicly available. Nevertheless, data from 2018 through 2022 reveals a similar trend for Massachusetts and Boston.
Interesting to note, teacher attrition decreased at the onset of the pandemic. There is no clear exit data, but many plausible theories for why more people are leaving public education teaching positions at higher rates now.
In addition to the immediate effects on students, classrooms, and schools, teacher turnover threatens to slow or reverse a longer term, positive trend in the education sector in Massachusetts and Boston.
Our educator workforce has become increasingly diverse.
Across Massachusetts schools, the growth of the workforce has been driven by educators of color. Hispanic educator recruitment outstripped the rate for white educators by a factor of 13. Asian and African American educators, each by a factor of +10.
The trend line is similar in Boston, although much less significant (some racial groups excluded due to small n’s).
The potential benefits and value for student experiences and student outcomes are well-researched. There is still a very long way to go; white educators in Massachusetts outnumber non-white educators by 100,000. But attention to this issue, the Commonwealth’s programming and funding, and local “home-grown” programs are clearly contributing to the progress.
But, by virtue of being new to the field, many educators of color may face a different type of retention challenge. Some Massachusetts districts (like Amherst-Pelham) have announced layoffs for this year’s budget, while others (like Newton) are relying on local votes to raise taxes to avoid this scenario. As national experts and we have repeatedly warned, there is a fiscal cliff coming, driven by the drying up of federal stimulus and/or the continued threat of recession (whose traditional harbinger, the negative yield curve, continues to flap its wings).
If money is tight, more districts may need to consider laying off staff. This is all the more piqued where federal stimulus funds were used to support positions, like in Boston, where ~370 educators' salaries and benefits will be paid for by federal funds that do not exist the following year (page 12).
As documented in this report, state laws dictate that any layoffs begin with newest, non-tenured educators. Out of 40 states in the country, new educators in Massachusetts are the most likely to be Black.
In the name of evidence-based practices and equity, our districts and Commonwealth have committed to and made progress in bringing educators of color into the workforce.
So how could one justify that those same educators of color should be asked to leave their jobs?
Notes in the Margin
With questions still unanswered around youth violence in Boston, Police Commissioner Cox asserted “a role” for police in schools.
A firsthand account of a Boston parent trying to assess her child’s academic progress.
Changes at METCO remove application barriers and allow families to apply directly to suburban districts.
Another Catholic high school serving Boston students (Mt. Alvernia in Newton) announced its closure this week; the Archdiocese self-reports that enrollment across all Catholic schools has increased.
With intense political and racial tension, a former Boston assistant superintendent was dismissed as Everett’s superintendent.
Massachusetts community colleges are ending their COVID-19 vaccine mandate, a decision perhaps rooted in math, rather than public health or politics.
There is evidence that PK-12 enrollment decline is leading to higher education enrollment decline.