FYI from BSF, 02.04.22
Faith in Numbers
For better or worse, culture, laws, and technology have us all awash in data.
In education, this shift started two decades ago, as the federal and state government began to require schools and school districts to report more and more data, covering everything from test scores to teacher licenses. In exchange, billions of dollars in funds were provided for public education.
During such a routine report, errors were found in how Boston Public Schools reports its high school graduation rates over the past 7 years. Families and elected officials like high graduation rates, and these errors made those rates seem higher.
The nature of the error is technical and reflects a small sample. In other words, it is an audit finding. And, as anyone who has engaged in audit knows, when something is found, the question is whether or not it requires more inquiry or corrective action.
So, what will be the response from the district? The state? The federal government? False graduation reporting in Washington DC resulted in significant consequences.
There is a lot of important data that is self-reported in schools. Half of the outcomes that comprise the Massachusetts accountability system for high schools - graduation, engagement, dropouts, absenteeism, advanced courses- rely on data that districts solely provide. We only have a superintendent’s word, a certification, that these numbers are right.
All of which makes one look a little differently at the FY23 budget that was released at Boston School Committee on Wednesday. As planned, the budget grew, a $40M increase from Mayor Wu, a slight bump from the $36M pledged by former Mayor Walsh. As usual, there are a lot of documents to sift through.
And again, it is hard to tie out some of the numbers.
Enrollment
Enrollment decline is clearly a concern; BPS presented an expected decrease in student enrollment for FY23 (page 54).
The FY23 projected enrollment is 49,253. Odd, because that number is higher than the state reported enrollment of 48,645. How can enrollment be decreasing and increasing at the same time?
This is not new. Projected enrollment has consistently been above actual enrollment back at least five years (an average miss of ~ 4%).
As BPS follows a weighted student funding formula, enrollment drives the budget. If enrollment is wrong, the budget is wrong, and has real consequences at the school level.
Soft Landings
The consequence of these enrollment declines and misses? Soft landings.
Schools with declining enrollment often can’t afford their programs, so they rely on “soft landings,” additional funds to remain viable. What was once the exception, is now the rule as around 70% of all schools will receive funds to respond to enrollment decline.
If BPS spends $54M on soft landings this coming year (page 29), that means our city will spend more money on empty seats in our schools than Sudbury spent on all of their actual students in 2020. Or Winthrop. Or Pembroke. Or 306 other Massachusetts school districts.
If it were its own district, BPS soft landings would be around the 80th percentile for spending in Massachusetts.
On Wednesday night, this was described as “unsustainable.” What’s the plan?
Programmatic Investments
There is a long list of important programmatic investments: student and family supports, curriculum, facilities, and enrichment.
A close read shows that one of the biggest drivers for these expenses is hiring - new coordinators, new counselors, new librarians, new central office staff, etc.
This begs an obvious question: how are these salaries paid for in the future? How are the investments sustained without an annual, big increase in funding from the city? Federal stimulus can help in the short run, but that goes away, too, and there is no public plan for the remaining money (see last line).
And, it is not like hiring is easy right now.
Over the next six weeks, the city will complete the first stage of the school budget. After the School Committee vote, it heads to City Hall for City Council review and approval. There is important work to be done for children and educators. The numbers and plans matter.
Trust, but verify.
Reopening Boston, MA, and Beyond
Instead of rapid tests, reopening school on Monday in Boston required shovels. There were not enough umbrellas or salt to keep school open today.
Another week, and even bigger declines in school reported COVID cases. Massachusetts student rates down 39%, down 46% for staff. The drops were steeper in Boston (student rates down 46%, staff rates down 52%).
Declines will inevitably raise more questions about required mitigation measures in schools. Despite some strong community support to remove them, polling indicates that parents are more than likely to hold on to masks for a bit longer.
Vaccines may be coming soon for young families and child care providers, providing a lot of potential relief if/when there is another surge. Cases for 0-4 year-olds in Massachusetts grew by 1,327% from November through January (see raw data).
New Orleans is the first major city to implement a required vaccination for its students, despite a split in public opinion, opposition, and hesitancy.
There is no doubt that the immense demands on educators now is leading to turnover and new jobs. A wave of departures may be coming, but no sign of that yet in Boston and Massachusetts: teacher and principal retention has risen during the pandemic.
The Baker Administration has put additional pressure on Massachusetts higher education to loosen COVID restrictions affecting student mental health, garnering disagreement from at least one Massachusetts lawmaker.
A bill was introduced in Congress to end legacy admissions at colleges and universities.
Other Matters
We are still talking about exam schools.
It is good to know there is wide agreement (80+%) across Massachusetts on at least some education topics. Among, them:
Early College
Tutoring
School Integration
Full poll and analysis from MassINC here.