FYI from BSF, 02.26.21

Some things we have read through recently…

Leading or Lagging?

No one can predict the future.  

Certainly not us.

But for the past year, public health experts have been fairly prescient, directionally.  On the sunny side, the summer of 2020.  In much darker territory, the latter end of 2020 and start of 2021.

This is based on data and its interpretation.

There are many ways and data points to judge where we are and where we are going with COVID-19.  But two have been fairly reliable for a bit.

First, infection rates, which are way down.

Second, the speed/multiplication of spread (rT), which has reached nearly an all-time low.

Squint your eyes (and set aside some other factors), and you can see that the first graph follows the second.  It took months for a dramatic increase in rates the last time rT was this low.

Although “red” now, Massachusetts appears to be trending towards the CDC green zone.

This lends color to the super news of this week, that Commissioner Riley and the Baker Administration asserted the need to dramatically increase in-person schooling after April break, starting with elementary schools (as recommended by Fauci/CDC, even though vaccines won’t be available at that age for some time).  

This is the part where we usually drop in some links, but the number of stories would fill up the rest of this post.  Shorter version: there was an announcement at the Tuesday Board meeting, a press conference that afternoon, and concerns were raised.

Some experts even want to go further.  Others, not.

One thing should not be lost in this debate: families still have the option to do what they think is best for their children.  Families who have concerns for safety and trust of schools (particularly families of color, which is well-documented) can still remain remote.

The upshot is that the next 6-8 weeks perhaps will require more communication with and personalization for families than school systems typically require.  Once again, schools have become a local matter.  

How will schools and school systems respond?  Vaccinations?  Do they have resources and guidance to pull this off?  3 or 6 feet?  What are equity implications as some districts/schools reopen while others don’t?  How do we account for mental health needs?

Pretty soon we may know if state, district, and school leaders are right or wrong, behind or ahead.

Reopening in Boston, MA, and Beyond

Boston Public Schools will be rolling out increased in-person schooling next week.  Boston’s COVID-19 metrics have not been this low since the fall, meaning the original plan agreed to by the city and BTU is back in play.  

Same story in Brockton, reflecting a general trend in large school districts around the country. Many private and Catholic schools in urban areas have remained open.

Data presented at Wednesday’s Boston School Committee meeting implies an increased interest in younger students resuming in-person learning, and decreased interest amongst older students (page 5).  Data on early literacy was presented, showing wide gaps (slides 9-11).  The Committee also reported out on listening sessions.

New questions arose this week around enrollment given the slow, uneven growth of preK access and enrollment in Boston.  Stay tuned for a budget update from us - the question of how or even whether school districts spend federal dollars is playing out across the country.   The use of these funds may be surprising; for instance, in Minnesota, funds will need to be used to make up for high school enrollment declines - because students enrolled in local higher education classes instead.

In any case, the Biden Administration backs Massachusetts and other states’ plans to administer common assessments. 

Other Matters

Another piece of research underlining education’s version of racial profiling: special education.  School discipline, too.

One of our very first projects here at BSF is getting closer to the finish line - Boston Arts Academy’s new building had a topping off ceremony this week.