FYI from BSF, 02.12.21

Some things we have read through recently...

Budget Series, Part II

With last week’s Boston School Committee meeting and last night’s hearing, we are full into budget season.

For anyone who missed it or didn’t have time, below is the Cliffs Notes version of our second release in our budget series.  For those who want extra credit, you can download the deck or take 8 more minutes to read our post on Medium.

Here are the four themes we are watching.

More Money

Boston already invests more in public education than almost any other major city in the country and will continue to invest even more next year.  Following a three-year rollout announced last January, Boston is sending $36M more dollars over to BPS for next year. 

This is a huge increase - nearly 30% growth when annual inflation averaged just 1.78% in the same period.

Also over this period of time, Boston enjoyed incredibly high economic growth, filling municipal coffers.  

How long will these good times last?

More Kids

Anyone who closely follows our work (or just observes data) probably scratched their head at this one.  

It’s not a typo.  

Despite long-term enrollment decline (tracked by us or our friends at Boston Indicators) and a big drop in enrollment this past year, the BPS FY22 budget projects more students next year than are currently enrolled.  

This isn’t a new dynamic - BPS enrollment projections have been off for five straight years.

Enrollment decline means less state and federal dollars - those are very important in the next few years given all of the COVID-19 dollars flowing to districts and schools.

It also means the cost of empty seats is going up.

Which brings us to...

Soft Landings

Since BPS allocates money on a per-pupil basis, schools that experience enrollment decline hit budget pressure.  BPS often mitigates this through soft landings, giving those schools extra dollars as a cushion to preserve programs.

In FY22, this exception became the rule with nearly 3/4 of BPS schools receiving some form of soft landings.

Taking the necessary step of maintaining schools through this budget comes at a cost: adding the $33M to a past figure as a guide, empty seats could be costing BPS thousands of dollars per student in those buildings.

Is this sustainable?

Federal Aid 

BPS has a lot of money coming in from the federal government, and maybe even more to come.

These dollars are flexible in several ways, including when they are spent.  
Based on the budget as presented, BPS is choosing to not invest significantly in children’s return to school next year.  Most of the federal dollars have no specific plan or have been deferred for future years.

There is a logic to meting out one-time dollars carefully; you don’t want to go off a cliff when the money runs out.  At the same time, there is no shortage of 1 or 2-year interventions from which kids and educators would benefit.

Will future budget presentations provide more detail on this strategy?
Boston School Committee meets next on February 24th.

We will be watching for you.

Reopening in Boston, MA, and Beyond

Given previous spikes after breaks and holidays, many are wary about kids and families traveling for February break next week.  Lobbying has picked up significantly for teachers to be prioritized in the current vaccination round, including a focus on high-need districts.

How does that affect the timing of more kids being in school buildings?  That is unclear.  The politics of this are playing out differently around the country.  Rhode Island’s approach this past summer and fall is chronicled.  National teacher union leadership weighs in.  Superintendents are between a rock and hard place, staring down angry parents and teachers who may quit or not show up.  In Boston and in many places, students are in buildings but still on Zoom.

The signs are less clear from the federal government.  The commitment of dollars is certainly there, but for what purpose?  With the Biden administration redefining opening school buildings to be one day per week for some time, their 100-day promise seems a lot more attainable: in Massachusetts over 80% of schools are already “open.

Other Matters

Early education is getting a lot more attention now, with the private sector and non-profits supporting programs and preparing to advocate for policy changes.

Data on early college continues to be promising.

Boston Families Building Boston Schools is hosting a town forum to “demand a plan” for BPS for next year.  Sign on here and sign up for the event here.
King Boston is publicizing events around Black History Month, including one on higher education on February 23.